The forecast comes from Reddit traffic, which has nearly quadrupled since August. How it is calculated, why to take it with a pinch of salt, and the microtransaction speculation.
Analyst James Callahan has updated his model, and the number is up. The interesting part is not the number but how he gets there.
The maths, step by step
Piper Sandler relates subreddit traffic for major games to their launch sales, using around 15 cases. GTA VI's keeps climbing:
| Moment | Weekly active users on r/GTA6 |
|---|---|
| Mid-August | ~700,000 |
| After the leaks | ~1.4 million |
| After the Extended Look | ~2 million |
| A week later | ~2.7 million |
That yields two estimates that nearly match:
- 16x the 3 million weekly users expected at launch: 48 million.
- 18x today's 2.7 million: 48.6 million.
Why it is actually a cautious calculation
In June the same model used a 35.5x multiplier and already gave over 45 million. Now it more than halves it and the figure still rises, because traffic grew faster than expected. A 16x multiplier would put GTA VI among the five least "efficient" games in the whole sample.
Note that contrast: the bank's own formal launch estimate is around 30 million. The 48 is what the Reddit model says, not its official call.
The microtransaction speculation
The note reads commercial meaning into two Extended Look scenes: Lucia bench-pressing and a shooting range. Callahan thinks character stats may matter more, and speculates Rockstar could sell ways to speed up that progress.
How to read the figure
With a pinch of salt. Reddit traffic measures interest, not purchases, and GTA VI is an unprecedented case that can break any model. What it does say clearly is that interest has not cooled: it has surged over the past four weeks.
For context
The company's own numbers help put the figure in perspective. GTA V made more than $815 million in its first 24 hours, the equivalent of about 11.21 million copies (Wikipedia, citing Take-Two). And in its latest quarterly report, covering April to June 2026, Take-Two puts GTA V at more than 230 million copies and Red Dead Redemption 2 at more than 87 million (Simulation Daily).
At first glance, 48 million would be more than four times GTA V's first day. But the figures aren't comparable: GTA V's covers 24 hours, while Piper Sandler's refers to the launch in general, not the same period. Take-Two, for its part, doesn't forecast units. Its guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2027, the launch year, calls for $8 billion to $8.2 billion in net bookings.
On how pre-orders are going, The Verge reported they skew towards PS5 and Xbox replied the game is breaking records on its console; we explain it in this story.
FAQ
How many copies will GTA 6 sell?
Nobody knows: these are analyst estimates. Piper Sandler's Reddit model gives 48 million at launch, but the bank's own formal forecast is around 30.
How much did GTA V sell on day one?
About 11.21 million copies in 24 hours, with more than $815 million in revenue.
How many copies has GTA V sold?
More than 230 million, according to Take-Two's latest quarterly report (April-June 2026).
Source: Piper Sandler note reported by Wccftech.
Sources
What this article is based on. Official Rockstar sources first; titles are shown in their original language.
- Wikipedia Grand Theft Auto V
- Simulation Daily GTA5 Has Sold Over 230 Million Copies; Red Dead Redemption 2 Passed 87 Million Units
- Wccftech GTA 6's Reddit Traffic Has Quadrupled Since Mid-August, and Piper Sandler Now Sees 48 Million Launch Units · September 11, 2026
